The article "How AI Could Help Rebuild the Middle Class" by Professor David Autor made me think about unpredictable nature of complex systems and the common misconceptions surrounding pivotal developments in our world.
The working age population will inevitably decline over the coming decades. I previously explored the implications of China's demographic shift, debating if it's a crisis or an overreaction : #14 China demographic crisis or maybe not a crisis?
The potential of AI to replace some jobs should therefore be welcomed rather than feared. Public opinion, however, is rife with fear and uncertainty about the future of work.
Professor Autor presents a compelling case for AI's beneficial role in reshaping the labour market. He gives fascinating perspective on how technological developments have been changing labour market over the last two centuries, with mass production creating middle-class, computerisation feeding a four-decade-long trend of rising inequality and now AI having a potential to restore this middle-skill, middle-class part of the labour market.
Relevant studies cited by Professor Autor reveal that AI's most significant enhancements occur in the work of less skilled employees, bringing their output closer to that of their expert level colleagues. It's important to note, however, that AI doesn't make experts out of novices. Instead, it elevates those with foundational expertise, allowing them to tackle decision-making tasks traditionally reserved for the highly trained elite. Imagine nurses using AI to take on responsibilities currently held by doctors, or legal assistants drafting complex contracts — this is the democratization of skill that AI promises.
Building a More Resilient Future
Resilience is a capacity of the system to manage change and continue to develop. The level of change, which started around 200 years ago, accelerates rather than slows down. Many sustainability experts argue that we are crossing already too many planetary boundaries entering a danger zone, which can lead to homo sapiens extinction. We have not been yet particularly successful in managing this change and AI revolution can provide required boost to our ability to cope with the major risks we face in the coming decades and centuries (if we ever get there).
On an individual level, AI presents a solution to the overwhelming complexity of modern life, which often exceeds our cognitive capacities. I wrote about the cognitive challenges recently: #23 - 188 Cognitive Biases. Professor Autor article brings interesting view on how AI can reduce information requirements for individual. By assisting us in managing our attention and focusing on what truly matters, AI can extend our mental bandwidth. Preparing is a fundamental aspect of resilience, and embracing AI as a tool to enhance our individual capabilities is what I wholeheartedly endorse.
AI's Impact: Beyond the Economy
AI's influence extends far beyond economic implications – it has a potential to become a tool for societal and personal advancement. By leveraging AI, we can redefine what's possible for the middle class, build a more resilient society, and augment our own resilience abilities. Exciting times...
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